DRAM and NAND prices are going up and projected to rise further. Many people perceive the current memory market situation as a temporary imbalance between supply and demand. Or, they expect the market to settle when the manufacturing of 3D NAND flash reaches maturity. However, no one knows when DRAM supplies will improve.
The demand: There are no killer applications or booming market segments. That means the problem stems from the supply side.
According to Micron, DRAM bit growth is expected to be 15% to 20% in 2017, the lowest bit growth in the last 20 years. Such small bit growth comes from DRAM scaling limitations. There has not been any news regarding DRAM scaling for a while. When bit growth is below 45%, it is a seller market. DRAM prices could increase without any improvements in supply.
There is extreme competition in the NAND market. Based on expectations that 3D NAND will significantly improve productivity, all NAND vendors invested billions of dollars in 3D NAND manufacturing. Because of that, oversupply was expected a while ago. However, this expectation was false. 3D NAND had been more difficult to fabricate and currently, a few vendors are struggling to ship 3D NAND.
For the time being, buyers could control the memory price and memory products have been disregarded as a commodity. Now, it is a golden age for memory vendors and high memory prices will become a burden for buyers. Memory has the potential to become a seller’s market because of memory scaling limitations. Luxe can help you source electronic components like DRAM and NAND, contact us for a quote.
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